Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down on October 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 1.4¢ · $39 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Up
5
Up 100%
$39.25
-$104.64
5.9¢ → 1.4¢
-76% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Down 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.8¢ | $68.29 | $29.89 | -$38.4 | 65% 2370-1275 (3645) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.8¢ | $23.5 | $3.2 | -$20.3 | 55% 48369-39928 (88297) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $24 | $2.7 | -$21.3 | 55% 49620-39845 (89465) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.8¢ | $25.5 | $2.7 | -$22.8 | 55% 50403-41002 (91405) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 10.3¢ | $2.06 | $0.76 | -$1.84 | 56% 2802-2227 (5029) |
Invested
$68.29
Value
$29.89
PnL
-$38.4
Record
65%
2370-1275 (3645)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$20.3
Record
55%
48369-39928 (88297)
Invested
$24
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$21.3
Record
55%
49620-39845 (89465)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$22.8
Record
55%
50403-41002 (91405)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$1.84
Record
56%
2802-2227 (5029)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.