Solana Up or Down on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 74¢ · $792 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$791.79
$312.75
37.8¢ → 73.5¢
+95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $294.84 | $607.43 | +$312.59 | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $72.63 | $73.81 | +$1.18 | 55% 49401-39612 (89013) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $65.83 | $63.5 | -$2.33 | 55% 48213-39759 (87972) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $41.41 | $45.01 | +$3.61 | 55% 50257-40835 (91092) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $4.34 | $2.04 | -$2.3 | 56% 2779-2195 (4974) |
Invested
$294.84
Value
$607.43
PnL
+$312.59
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
Invested
$72.63
Value
$73.81
PnL
+$1.18
Record
55%
49401-39612 (89013)
Invested
$65.83
Value
$63.5
PnL
-$2.33
Record
55%
48213-39759 (87972)
Invested
$41.41
Value
$45.01
PnL
+$3.61
Record
55%
50257-40835 (91092)
Invested
$4.34
Value
$2.04
PnL
-$2.3
Record
56%
2779-2195 (4974)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.