Solana Up or Down - November 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $423 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
14
Down 86%
$422.99
-$18.67
79.9¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $167.84 | $167.93 | +$0.08 | 59% 63938-45089 (109027) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $40.89 | $59.18 | +$18.29 | 51% 10700-10150 (20850) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $79.21 | $44.19 | -$35.01 | 45% 40271-48253 (88524) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $34.15 | $32.65 | -$1.5 | 48% 6777-7423 (14200) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $23.67 | $21.8 | -$1.87 | 55% 51918-43034 (94952) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.6¢ | $16.23 | $20 | +$3.77 | 51% 12277-11765 (24042) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99.1¢ | $19.81 | $19.99 | +$0.18 | 89% 29559-3560 (33119) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $15.85 | $15 | -$0.85 | 56% 8929-6991 (15920) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $9.63 | $10.58 | +$0.94 | 66% 130853-67700 (198553) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97.8¢ | $8.73 | $8.79 | +$0.06 | 61% 98777-62719 (161496) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $11.65 | $7.75 | -$1.54 | 65% 130517-70309 (200826) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $4.61 | $5.12 | +$0.51 | 49% 81148-84583 (165731) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $5.99 | $5.07 | -$0.92 | 65% 114739-61779 (176518) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 57.7¢ | $5.77 | $4.95 | -$0.82 | 56% 60702-47212 (107914) |
Invested
$167.84
Value
$167.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
59%
63938-45089 (109027)
Invested
$40.89
Value
$59.18
PnL
+$18.29
Record
51%
10700-10150 (20850)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$79.21
Value
$44.19
PnL
-$35.01
Record
45%
40271-48253 (88524)
Invested
$34.15
Value
$32.65
PnL
-$1.5
Record
48%
6777-7423 (14200)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$23.67
Value
$21.8
PnL
-$1.87
Record
55%
51918-43034 (94952)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.77
Record
51%
12277-11765 (24042)
Invested
$19.81
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.18
Record
89%
29559-3560 (33119)
Invested
$15.85
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.85
Record
56%
8929-6991 (15920)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.94
Record
66%
130853-67700 (198553)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$8.79
PnL
+$0.06
Record
61%
98777-62719 (161496)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$7.75
PnL
-$1.54
Record
65%
130517-70309 (200826)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.61
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.51
Record
49%
81148-84583 (165731)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.92
Record
65%
114739-61779 (176518)
Invested
$5.77
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.82
Record
56%
60702-47212 (107914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.