Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (90%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 11¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 7

Up11¢Down89¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$136.54

Combined PnL

-$10.49

Research grade

AvoidUp at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up11%

Down90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$44.76

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$11.69

Down4 traders

Total Value$30.93

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$1.2

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$65.7	$60.85	-$4.85	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$34.17	$38.03	+$3.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$31.53	$22.83	-$8.7
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 38.5¢	$30.39	$20.12	-$10.27	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$15.6	$15	-$0.6	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$14.79	$12.68	-$2.11	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 48¢	$7.2	$8.77	+$1.57	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 38.1¢	$8.06	$7.55	-$0.51	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 42¢	$3.04	$5.22	+$2.18	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.25	-$0.45	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$2.41	$2.09	-$0.32	49% 81012-84457 (165469)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$65.7

Value

$60.85

PnL

-$4.85

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$34.1752.6¢+$3.85

Up$31.5357.3¢-$8.7

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$30.39

Value

$20.12

PnL

-$10.27

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$2.11

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$1.57

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$0.51

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$3.04

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$2.18

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.2%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$718.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

818.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.