Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 87¢ · $101K held · ended Nov 8

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$101.1K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 86.5¢

+31% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 22 top traders (41%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$78.6K

Total Shares121,795

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No13 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares45,704

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thegreatjeff	Yesavg 89.2¢	$39.2K	$38.5K	-$731.35	67% 26-13 (39)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 53¢	$36.5K	$35.5K	$-1.0K	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$4.3K	$5.8K	+$1.4K	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.3¢	$2.3K	$3.5K	+$1.2K
└ No leg	Noavg 17.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$181.33
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$3.3K	$4.3K	+$1.1K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$303.9
└ No leg	Noavg 11.2¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$756.76
ET Ethanael02	Yesavg 51¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$114.15	64% 118-66 (184)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$208.31	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.4¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$958.29
└ No leg	Noavg 20.5¢	$2.2K	$1.0K	$-1.2K
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 26.6¢	$4.1K	$2.9K	$-1.2K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 11¢	$795.46	$1.4K	+$578.52	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$580.03	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$437.84	$768.68	+$330.84
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$1.1K	$236.15	-$910.87
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 50.2¢	$929.05	$896.71	-$32.35	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 51¢	$511.59	$536.85	+$25.26	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50¢	$5.0K	$525.11	$-2.1K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 11¢	$567.92	$490.48	-$77.44	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
LonnieHawkinssCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$684.59	$419.12	-$92.7	53% 2185-1944 (4129)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 53¢	$1.8K	$331.16	$-1.5K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 49¢	$294	$309	+$15	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 15¢	$621.61	$277.46	+$62.88	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ No leg	Noavg 15¢	$224.12	$141.71	-$82.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.6¢	$92.44	$135.75	+$145.3
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 90¢	$200	$201.11	+$1.11	89% 1073-138 (1211)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$897.9	$189.02	-$708.88	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$147.88	$152.97	+$39.95	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.9¢	$60.94	$117.64	+$65.94
└ No leg	Noavg 16.2¢	$60.25	$35.33	-$26
AR ARocky33	Yesavg 87.6¢	$99.66	$103	+$3.34	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 83.2¢	$83.69	$87.02	+$3.33	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
0X 0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979	Yesavg 68.5¢	$625.08	$67.21	+$151.5	68% 295-142 (437)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$29.8	$30.68	+$0.88	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$17.09	$16.24	-$0.85	47% 11040-12658 (23698)

thegreatjeff

Yes

Invested

$39,221.13

Value

$38.5K

PnL

-$731.35

Record

67%

26-13 (39)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$36,509.74

Value

$35.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,345.27

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Yes$2,278.6852.3¢+$1.2K

No$2,066.5917.5¢+$181.33

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,251.91

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Yes$2,157.6971¢+$303.9

No$1,094.2211.2¢+$756.76

Ethanael02

Yes

Invested

$3,985.76

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$114.15

Record

64%

118-66 (184)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,435.19

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$208.31

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$1,261.0551.4¢+$958.29

No$2,174.1420.5¢$-1.2K

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$4,059.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$795.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$578.52

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,584.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$580.03

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Yes$437.8451¢+$330.84

No$1,147.0251¢-$910.87

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$929.05

Value

$896.71

PnL

-$32.35

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$511.59

Value

$536.85

PnL

+$25.26

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$5,050

Value

$525.11

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$567.92

Value

$490.48

PnL

-$77.44

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

LonnieHawkinssCTR

Invested

$684.59

Value

$419.12

PnL

-$92.7

Record

53%

2185-1944 (4129)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$1,846.39

Value

$331.16

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$294

Value

$309

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$621.61

Value

$277.46

PnL

+$62.88

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

No$224.1215¢-$82.42

Yes$92.4461.6¢+$145.3

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$201.11

PnL

+$1.11

Record

89%

1073-138 (1211)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$897.9

Value

$189.02

PnL

-$708.88

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9XARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$147.88

Value

$152.97

PnL

+$39.95

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Yes$60.9446.9¢+$65.94

No$60.2516.2¢-$26

ARocky33

Yes

Invested

$99.66

Value

$103

PnL

+$3.34

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.69

Value

$87.02

PnL

+$3.33

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979

Yes

Invested

$625.08

Value

$67.21

PnL

+$151.5

Record

68%

295-142 (437)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$29.8

Value

$30.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$17.09

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$0.85

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 22 top traders (41%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.