Celtic FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 2.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 66¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$207.47

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 65.5¢

-17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,112

Combined PnL+$27.55

Under7 traders

Total Value$745.61

Total Shares2,707

Combined PnL+$179.92

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Overavg 80.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$45.33	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 20¢	$332.05	$481.47	+$149.42	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66¢	$213.84	$212.22	-$1.62	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 21.3¢	$136.29	$137.62	+$1.38	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 21.9¢	$48.61	$76.45	+$27.84	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 80¢	$47.46	$42.12	-$5.34	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 88.8¢	$22.2	$17.88	-$4.32	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$9.26	$17.42	+$0.02	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$13.88	$13.67	-$0.21	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$13.62	$13.3	-$0.32	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 77¢	$19.25	$12.75	-$6.5	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22.2¢	$3.89	$5.69	+$1.8	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$1,356.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$45.33

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$332.05

Value

$481.47

PnL

+$149.42

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$213.84

Value

$212.22

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$136.29

Value

$137.62

PnL

+$1.38

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.61

Value

$76.45

PnL

+$27.84

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$47.46

Value

$42.12

PnL

-$5.34

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$22.2

Value

$17.88

PnL

-$4.32

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.26

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.88

Value

$13.67

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.62

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$19.25

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$6.5

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.89

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.