Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-08?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (81%) · Yes at 91¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 8

Yes91¢No9¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$913.7

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 90.5¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares25,643

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No3 traders

Total Value$990.29

Total Shares9,945

Combined PnL-$351.71

Yes — 81%No — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 86.6¢	$9.1K	$9.2K	+$121.44	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Yesavg 85.4¢	$6.5K	$6.1K	+$588.79	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 86.1¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	+$338.15	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 13.7¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$390.5	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.5¢	$964.1	$969.42	+$5.33
└ No leg	Noavg 13.7¢	$1.2K	$764.25	-$395.83
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 88¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$114.79	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 84.1¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	-$2.32	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 84.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.92	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$1.2K	$937.52	-$280.39	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 85¢	$534.22	$550.14	+$15.92	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 86.1¢	$845.11	$455.01	+$32	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 94.3¢	$275.52	$258.99	-$0.74	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 86.7¢	$325.84	$247.75	+$29.92	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 84.5¢	$236.68	$224.85	+$24.86	32% 21107-45346 (66453)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$116.25	$114.34	+$2.74	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.7¢	$223.26	$85.16	-$0.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 85¢	$26.38	$29.18	+$2.79
dips.<$100	Yesavg 94.5¢	$90.82	$87.44	-$3.38	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$67.65	$70.72	+$3.08	48% 39763-42635 (82398)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 13¢	$703.57	$38.7	-$52.77	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$32.63	$14.08	-$18.56	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$9,110.24

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$121.44

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$6,476.2

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$588.79

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$4,062.64

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$338.15

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$2,124.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$390.5

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

Yes$964.190.5¢+$5.33

No$1,160.0713.7¢-$395.83

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$1,637

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$114.79

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$3,053.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.32

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$1,148.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.92

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$1,217.91

Value

$937.52

PnL

-$280.39

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$534.22

Value

$550.14

PnL

+$15.92

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$845.11

Value

$455.01

PnL

+$32

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$275.52

Value

$258.99

PnL

-$0.74

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$325.84

Value

$247.75

PnL

+$29.92

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$236.68

Value

$224.85

PnL

+$24.86

Record

32%

21107-45346 (66453)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$116.25

Value

$114.34

PnL

+$2.74

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Invested

$90.82

Value

$87.44

PnL

-$3.38

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.65

Value

$70.72

PnL

+$3.08

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$703.57

Value

$38.7

PnL

-$52.77

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$32.63

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$18.56

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.