Leixoes SC vs. GD Chaves: O/U 1.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$179.18

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 51.5¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,972

Combined PnL+$185.52

Over2 traders

Total Value$38.07

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$6.33

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$287.52	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$924.88	$1.2K	+$290.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.4¢	$380.51	$377.23	-$3.28
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.1¢	$885.01	$1.0K	+$138.51	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 35.9¢	$787.81	$1.0K	+$233.22	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 61¢	$828	$631.18	-$196.82	65% 358-191 (549)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$56.16	$56.01	-$0.16	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
dips.<$100	Underavg 34¢	$27.88	$38.13	+$10.25	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$25.8	$20.37	-$5.43	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 93¢	$18.6	$17.7	-$0.9	52% 249-233 (482)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 35.8¢	$19.17	$15.27	-$3.9	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$10.6	$13.82	+$3.21	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 34¢	$6.8	$8	+$1.2	38% 1375-2208 (3583)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,305.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$287.52

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Both legs:

Under$924.8844.9¢+$290.79

Over$380.5141.4¢-$3.28

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$885.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$138.51

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$787.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$233.22

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$828

Value

$631.18

PnL

-$196.82

Record

65%

358-191 (549)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$56.16

Value

$56.01

PnL

-$0.16

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$27.88

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$10.25

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.8

Value

$20.37

PnL

-$5.43

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.6

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$0.9

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$19.17

Value

$15.27

PnL

-$3.9

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$10.6

Value

$13.82

PnL

+$3.21

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$6.8

Value

PnL

+$1.2

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.