Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (98%). 13 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 2.0¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 2¢

-96% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares15,639

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Under13 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares22,745

Combined PnL$-9.0K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 44.3¢	$4.5K	$9.3K	+$4.8K	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 60.8¢	$6.3K	$2.9K	$-3.4K	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	Overavg 43¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$798	63% 275-159 (434)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 38¢	$312.58	$777.34	+$464.76	46% 30579-35678 (66257)
6kke1t	Overavg 98¢	$500	$502.55	+$2.55	45% 930-1118 (2048)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 46.8¢	$255.55	$413.43	+$157.88	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.8K	$341.2	$-1.5K	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 60.8¢	$3.1K	$328.84	$-2.7K	73% 3345-1246 (4591)
MA maxiplayerCTR	Underavg 73.9¢	$1.5K	$317.56	-$230.51	76% 776-250 (1026)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 70¢	$280	$278	-$2	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 71.3¢	$281.42	$276.92	-$4.5	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 94.9¢	$210	$209.03	-$0.97	65% 25415-13614 (39029)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 57.9¢	$1.4K	$143.81	$-1.2K	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 31.2¢	$21.21	$66.3	+$45.09	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 10.3¢	$58.85	$46.59	-$1.38	46% 12125-14052 (26177)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 91¢	$39.36	$42.17	+$2.81	71% 18412-7577 (25989)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 71.5¢	$14.13	$13.9	-$0.23	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$10.57	$7.93	-$2.64	53% 1239-1103 (2342)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 27¢	$0.76	$0.83	+$0.07	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.26	$0.65	+$0.39	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$3.99	$0.35	-$3.63	48% 5143-5667 (10810)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,464.1

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$6,277.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

Over

Invested

$1,805.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$798

Record

63%

275-159 (434)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$312.58

Value

$777.34

PnL

+$464.76

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

6kke1t

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$502.55

PnL

+$2.55

Record

45%

930-1118 (2048)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$255.55

Value

$413.43

PnL

+$157.88

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,821.71

Value

$341.2

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$3,074.43

Value

$328.84

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

73%

3345-1246 (4591)

maxiplayerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,503.51

Value

$317.56

PnL

-$230.51

Record

76%

776-250 (1026)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$280

Value

$278

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$281.42

Value

$276.92

PnL

-$4.5

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$210

Value

$209.03

PnL

-$0.97

Record

65%

25415-13614 (39029)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,388.42

Value

$143.81

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$21.21

Value

$66.3

PnL

+$45.09

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.85

Value

$46.59

PnL

-$1.38

Record

46%

12125-14052 (26177)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$39.36

Value

$42.17

PnL

+$2.81

Record

71%

18412-7577 (25989)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.13

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.57

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$2.64

Record

53%

1239-1103 (2342)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.99

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$3.63

Record

48%

5143-5667 (10810)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.