Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 6.0¢ · $956 held · ended Nov 8

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$956.07

Combined PnL

$95.59

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 6¢

-90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$475.27

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$232.02

No4 traders

Total Value$198.16

Total Shares594

Combined PnL-$136.43

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 42.1¢	$175.83	$398.61	+$222.78	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$596.32	$282.65	-$313.67	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.5¢	$137.19	$223.87	+$86.68
└ No leg	Noavg 35.1¢	$459.14	$58.78	-$400.35
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 65¢	$139.07	$145.49	+$6.42	49% 516-547 (1063)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$43.26	$43.71	+$0.45	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$38.06	$39.34	+$1.28	53% 2982-2598 (5580)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$143.61	$12.21	-$131.41	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$10.6	$10.6	+$0	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$4.3	$9.55	+$5.25	62% 2044-1240 (3284)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5	$4.77	+$1.27	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.35	$4.77	+$2.42	71% 18402-7575 (25977)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$10	$3.25	-$0.15	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$13.85	$1.13	-$12.73	52% 6045-5577 (11622)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$175.83

Value

$398.61

PnL

+$222.78

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$596.32

Value

$282.65

PnL

-$313.67

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Yes$137.1958.5¢+$86.68

No$459.1435.1¢-$400.35

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$139.07

Value

$145.49

PnL

+$6.42

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.26

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$38.06

Value

$39.34

PnL

+$1.28

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$143.61

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$131.41

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$5.25

Record

62%

2044-1240 (3284)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$2.42

Record

71%

18402-7575 (25977)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$13.85

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$12.73

Record

52%

6045-5577 (11622)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.