Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jets vs. Stars: O/U 5.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$148.62

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 41.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,482

Combined PnL-$150.64

Over5 traders

Total Value$57.29

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$2.03

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$994.61	-$148.83	48% 581-620 (1201)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 58¢	$26.01	$26.01	+$0	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$23	$23	+$0	56% 324-253 (577)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$18.12	$16.3	-$1.82	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$12.69	$14.78	+$2.1	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$11.56	$11.56	+$0	43% 54-72 (126)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.8	+$0	36% 577-1014 (1591)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.8	+$0	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$4.97	$4.9	-$0.07	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$1,143.43

Value

$994.61

PnL

-$148.83

Record

48%

581-620 (1201)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$26.01

Value

$26.01

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23

Value

$23

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.12

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$1.82

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$12.69

Value

$14.78

PnL

+$2.1

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.56

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

54-72 (126)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.