Sharks vs. Kings

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (55%) · Kings at 89¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 5

Sharks12¢Kings88¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$263.24

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 88.5¢

+21% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralKings at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sharks12%

Kings89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sharks9 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares9,830

Combined PnL-$366.91

Kings11 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,190

Combined PnL+$103.66

Sharks — 45%Kings — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Sharksavg 38.3¢	$11.9K	$4.7K	$-7.1K	48% 309-334 (643)
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 38.3¢	$10.4K	$2.8K	$-7.5K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 72¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$369.3
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Sharksavg 40¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$71.71	71% 7162-2905 (10067)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684	Kingsavg 94.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$16.89	37% 514-861 (1375)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 76.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$86.31	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Kingsavg 62.2¢	$995.03	$960	-$35.03	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
VeryLucky888	Kingsavg 59.7¢	$1.3K	$889.26	+$7.78	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
BI BillBenter2026	Kingsavg 81.3¢	$553.16	$618.01	+$64.85	58% 19129-14138 (33267)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Sharksavg 40¢	$355.2	$346.32	-$8.88	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 60¢	$300	$305	+$5	54% 18061-15195 (33256)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kingsavg 80.6¢	$300.56	$299.01	-$1.55	52% 14269-13042 (27311)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Kingsavg 63.2¢	$256.79	$247.94	-$8.85	51% 1843-1768 (3611)
0xheavy888	Kingsavg 59¢	$118	$123	+$5	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
CI cigarettesCTR	Sharksavg 28¢	$192.48	$79.06	-$113.43	53% 22918-20103 (43021)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sharksavg 30¢	$120.88	$71.74	-$49.15	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 87.6¢	$43.78	$44.75	+$0.97
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 30¢	$77.1	$26.99	-$50.11
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sharksavg 18¢	$78.06	$59.76	-$18.3	47% 11271-12651 (23922)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Kingsavg 93¢	$46.5	$46.25	-$0.25	54% 11957-10377 (22334)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Sharksavg 40.2¢	$153.35	$38.16	-$115.19	55% 6208-5087 (11295)
US User7429<$100	Kingsavg 77.9¢	$12.46	$9.76	-$2.7	56% 8993-7188 (16181)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sharksavg 29¢	$43.5	$9.75	-$33.75	57% 12452-9512 (21964)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Sharksavg 12.5¢	$6.58	$7.09	+$0.51	47% 10457-11924 (22381)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sharksavg 13¢	$12.2	$6.1	-$6.1	46% 1423-1681 (3104)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sharksavg 40¢	$2.36	$2.3	-$0.06	58% 19680-14468 (34148)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Sharks

Invested

$11,874.02

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

48%

309-334 (643)

Both legs:

Sharks$10,353.3938.3¢$-7.5K

Kings$1,520.6372¢+$369.3

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,868.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$71.71

Record

71%

7162-2905 (10067)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684

Kings

Invested

$1,782.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$16.89

Record

37%

514-861 (1375)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$1,194.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$86.31

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

JAMJAMJAM4

Kings

Invested

$995.03

Value

$960

PnL

-$35.03

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

VeryLucky888

Kings

Invested

$1,260.16

Value

$889.26

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

BillBenter2026

Kings

Invested

$553.16

Value

$618.01

PnL

+$64.85

Record

58%

19129-14138 (33267)

HerdoniaCTR

Sharks

Invested

$355.2

Value

$346.32

PnL

-$8.88

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$300

Value

$305

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

18061-15195 (33256)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kings

Invested

$300.56

Value

$299.01

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

14269-13042 (27311)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Kings

Invested

$256.79

Value

$247.94

PnL

-$8.85

Record

51%

1843-1768 (3611)

0xheavy888

Kings

Invested

$118

Value

$123

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

cigarettesCTR

Sharks

Invested

$192.48

Value

$79.06

PnL

-$113.43

Record

53%

22918-20103 (43021)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Sharks

Invested

$120.88

Value

$71.74

PnL

-$49.15

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

Both legs:

Kings$43.7887.6¢+$0.97

Sharks$77.130¢-$50.11

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$78.06

Value

$59.76

PnL

-$18.3

Record

47%

11271-12651 (23922)

BoomLaLa<$100

Kings

Invested

$46.5

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

11957-10377 (22334)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Sharks

Invested

$153.35

Value

$38.16

PnL

-$115.19

Record

55%

6208-5087 (11295)

User7429<$100

Kings

Invested

$12.46

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$2.7

Record

56%

8993-7188 (16181)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$43.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$33.75

Record

57%

12452-9512 (21964)

dips.CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$6.58

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

10457-11924 (22381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$12.2

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$6.1

Record

46%

1423-1681 (3104)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

Research grade

NeutralKings at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.