Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (81%) · Hurricanes at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Blackhawks2¢Hurricanes98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 81%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$201.96

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 98.5¢

+19% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks2%

Hurricanes98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes13 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares7,195

Combined PnL-$175

Blackhawks3 traders

Total Value$975.31

Total Shares5,021

Combined PnL-$26.96

Hurricanes — 81%Blackhawks — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHurricanes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Hurricanesavg 80¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$16.44	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hurricanesavg 79.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	-$179.85	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
RO royalestakeCTR	Blackhawksavg 20¢	$1.0K	$975	-$25	47% 416-463 (879)
nigiri99	Hurricanesavg 80.4¢	$746.17	$733.12	-$13.05	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
CI cigarettes	Hurricanesavg 98.3¢	$265.57	$265.98	+$0.41	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
38 38791873984189	Hurricanesavg 97.1¢	$226.74	$229.89	+$3.15	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Hurricanesavg 98¢	$206.65	$206.17	-$0.48	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PU purplegatto	Hurricanesavg 79.8¢	$120.49	$119.24	-$1.25	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Hurricanesavg 89.4¢	$76.5	$84.27	+$7.77	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Hurricanesavg 95¢	$83.18	$80.08	-$3.11	48% 405-446 (851)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Hurricanesavg 98¢	$66	$64.29	-$1.72	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hurricanesavg 95.1¢	$71.29	$63.83	-$6.17	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Hurricanesavg 97.1¢	$55.64	$48.57	-$7.07	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
VeryLucky888	Hurricanesavg 79¢	$324.88	$9.42	+$9.91	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 4.4¢	$0.66	$0.23	-$0.44	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
US User7429CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 11¢	$6.11	$0.09	-$1.52	56% 9429-7491 (16920)

ferrariChampions2026

Hurricanes

Invested

$2,631

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$16.44

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazard

Hurricanes

Invested

$1,613.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$179.85

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

royalestakeCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$1,000

Value

$975

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

nigiri99

Hurricanes

Invested

$746.17

Value

$733.12

PnL

-$13.05

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

cigarettes

Hurricanes

Invested

$265.57

Value

$265.98

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

38791873984189

Hurricanes

Invested

$226.74

Value

$229.89

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Hurricanes

Invested

$206.65

Value

$206.17

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

purplegatto

Hurricanes

Invested

$120.49

Value

$119.24

PnL

-$1.25

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

justaluckydude<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$76.5

Value

$84.27

PnL

+$7.77

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$83.18

Value

$80.08

PnL

-$3.11

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Flaznorp<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$66

Value

$64.29

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Pan9X<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$71.29

Value

$63.83

PnL

-$6.17

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$55.64

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$7.07

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

VeryLucky888

Hurricanes

Invested

$324.88

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$9.91

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

User7429CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$6.11

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.52

Record

56%

9429-7491 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHurricanes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.