Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 77¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 13

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 76.5¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares9,871

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,561

Combined PnL+$841.54

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (14 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Overavg 54¢	$4.2K	$6.0K	+$1.8K	49% 119-124 (243)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$827.85	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
nigiri99	Overavg 53¢	$677.34	$990.45	+$313.11	52% 399-371 (770)
CH chubbytoro	Overavg 49.3¢	$223.62	$303.41	+$79.79	27% 7-19 (26)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$285	+$50	52% 881-800 (1681)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$113.36	$139.33	+$25.96	45% 143-173 (316)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 66.9¢	$79.63	$51.17	-$28.46	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 53¢	$62.86	$51	-$11.86	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 55.8¢	$115.6	$44.57	-$71.03	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 66¢	$59.13	$38.52	-$20.61	35% 220-410 (630)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$29.38	$36.41	+$7.03	48% 581-620 (1201)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 70.1¢	$76.09	$22.47	-$6.8	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.23	$10.96	+$1.73	56% 324-253 (577)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$11.74	$8.08	-$0.82	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 49¢	$0.98	$0.86	-$0.12	36% 577-1014 (1591)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Over

Invested

$4,186.19

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

49%

119-124 (243)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,461.93

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$827.85

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$677.34

Value

$990.45

PnL

+$313.11

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

chubbytoro

Over

Invested

$223.62

Value

$303.41

PnL

+$79.79

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$285

PnL

+$50

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$113.36

Value

$139.33

PnL

+$25.96

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$79.63

Value

$51.17

PnL

-$28.46

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$62.86

Value

$51

PnL

-$11.86

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$115.6

Value

$44.57

PnL

-$71.03

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$59.13

Value

$38.52

PnL

-$20.61

Record

35%

220-410 (630)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.38

Value

$36.41

PnL

+$7.03

Record

48%

581-620 (1201)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$76.09

Value

$22.47

PnL

-$6.8

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.23

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$1.73

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$11.74

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.12

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (14 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.