Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Browns (70%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Browns (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (54%) · Saints at 31¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 8

Browns70¢Saints30¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

$377.09

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 30.5¢

-56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Browns70%

Saints31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints7 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares31,850

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Browns6 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares29,608

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Saints — 54%Browns — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaints 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585CTR	Saintsavg 70¢	$20.0K	$21.7K	+$1.7K	87% 80-12 (92)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Brownsavg 30¢	$8.5K	$6.8K	$-1.7K	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
RN1ARB<$100	Brownsavg 41.9¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$597.13	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 41.9¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$513.28
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 31¢	$399.9	$483.75	+$83.85
TA takeormakeCTR	Saintsavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$113.1	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Brownsavg 68.9¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$251.2	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 68.9¢	$892.65	$809.38	-$83.27
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 59.3¢	$367.25	$232.13	-$167.93
alpheclabs2	Brownsavg 46¢	$321.69	$500.01	+$178.33	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Saintsavg 52.4¢	$472.2	$456.25	-$15.95	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 46¢	$184	$250	+$66
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 52.4¢	$288.2	$206.25	-$81.95
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Brownsavg 48.2¢	$252.99	$375.62	+$122.63	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Saintsavg 51.4¢	$277.6	$202.5	-$75.1	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
nigiri99CTR	Saintsavg 70¢	$130.9	$139.32	+$8.42	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Saintsavg 56.3¢	$213.97	$111.72	+$29.21	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 33.5¢	$33.77	$72.07	+$70.19
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 56.3¢	$78.31	$39.65	-$40.98
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Saintsavg 62¢	$33.34	$36.46	+$3.12	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
GH ghorrock<$100	Brownsavg 45.8¢	$18.32	$28.62	+$10.3	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 41.5¢	$34.17	$22.97	+$0.37	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Saintsavg 32¢	$12.8	$15	+$2.2	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
AN Anon455<$100	Brownsavg 30¢	$12.78	$9.59	-$3.2	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
dips.CTR<$100	Saintsavg 54¢	$5.4	$2.85	-$2.55	46% 12092-14003 (26095)

999585CTR

Saints

Invested

$19,953.27

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

87%

80-12 (92)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Browns

Invested

$8,481.9

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

RN1ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$1,440.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$597.13

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Browns$1,041.0941.9¢+$513.28

Saints$399.931¢+$83.85

takeormakeCTR

Saints

Invested

$1,457.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$113.1

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$1,331.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$251.2

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Browns$892.6568.9¢-$83.27

Saints$367.2559.3¢-$167.93

alpheclabs2

Browns

Invested

$321.69

Value

$500.01

PnL

+$178.33

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$472.2

Value

$456.25

PnL

-$15.95

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Browns$18446¢+$66

Saints$288.252.4¢-$81.95

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Browns

Invested

$252.99

Value

$375.62

PnL

+$122.63

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Saints

Invested

$277.6

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$75.1

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

nigiri99CTR

Saints

Invested

$130.9

Value

$139.32

PnL

+$8.42

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$213.97

Value

$111.72

PnL

+$29.21

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Browns$33.7733.5¢+$70.19

Saints$78.3156.3¢-$40.98

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$33.34

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$3.12

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

ghorrock<$100

Browns

Invested

$18.32

Value

$28.62

PnL

+$10.3

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$34.17

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$0.37

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

cm2897CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$12.8

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.2

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Anon455<$100

Browns

Invested

$12.78

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$3.2

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

dips.CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$5.4

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$2.55

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaints 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.