Spread: Bills (-10.5)

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (70%) · Vikings at 70¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 10

Bills31¢Vikings69¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 70%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$385.27

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 69.5¢

+7% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills31%

Vikings70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings14 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,056

Combined PnL-$335.2

Bills6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,174

Combined PnL-$50.07

Vikings — 70%Bills — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (17 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA SadSquid54333	Vikingsavg 62¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$159.42	48% 94-102 (196)
CUTJALENHURTS	Vikingsavg 71¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$249.56	2% 8-332 (340)
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 30¢	$917.89	$1.2K	+$266.3	22% 85-296 (381)
RN1CTR	Billsavg 38¢	$969.3	$769.59	-$198.74	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Vikingsavg 57.8¢	$625.22	$710.1	+$96.22	42% 132-179 (311)
OM omnibus-076daa	Vikingsavg 69¢	$305.67	$290.17	-$15.5	34% 111-220 (331)
PR primmCTR	Billsavg 42¢	$393.79	$278.9	-$110.3	10% 18-162 (180)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Billsavg 41.3¢	$279.54	$264	-$15.54	43% 247-324 (571)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 74.7¢	$238.09	$216.14	-$21.94	48% 436-463 (899)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Vikingsavg 59¢	$207.64	$214.68	-$12.32	57% 104-80 (184)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vikingsavg 58¢	$162.98	$171.41	+$8.43	48% 1950-2154 (4104)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$58	$65.5	+$7.5	59% 1209-854 (2063)
CM cm2897<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$58	$65.5	+$7.5	47% 428-476 (904)
dips.<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$58	$65.5	+$7.5	44% 125-158 (283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Vikingsavg 75¢	$61.61	$60.68	-$0.93	53% 218-191 (409)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100	Vikingsavg 62¢	$37.8	$42.31	+$4.51	0% 2-440 (442)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 74.8¢	$77.54	$35.58	-$7.15	49% 194-203 (397)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Billsavg 27¢	$13.43	$18.72	+$5.28	26% 127-364 (491)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Billsavg 25¢	$11.25	$17.55	+$2.93	26% 55-158 (213)
US User7429<$100	Vikingsavg 62¢	$2.1	$2.06	-$0.03	16% 38-206 (244)

SadSquid54333

Vikings

Invested

$1,647.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$159.42

Record

48%

94-102 (196)

CUTJALENHURTS

Vikings

Invested

$1,865.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$249.56

Record

8-332 (340)

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$917.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$266.3

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

RN1CTR

Bills

Invested

$969.3

Value

$769.59

PnL

-$198.74

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Vikings

Invested

$625.22

Value

$710.1

PnL

+$96.22

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

omnibus-076daa

Vikings

Invested

$305.67

Value

$290.17

PnL

-$15.5

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

primmCTR

Bills

Invested

$393.79

Value

$278.9

PnL

-$110.3

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Bills

Invested

$279.54

Value

$264

PnL

-$15.54

Record

43%

247-324 (571)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$238.09

Value

$216.14

PnL

-$21.94

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Vikings

Invested

$207.64

Value

$214.68

PnL

-$12.32

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vikings

Invested

$162.98

Value

$171.41

PnL

+$8.43

Record

48%

1950-2154 (4104)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Vikings

Invested

$58

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

cm2897<$100

Vikings

Invested

$58

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

dips.<$100

Vikings

Invested

$58

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Vikings

Invested

$61.61

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$0.93

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100

Vikings

Invested

$37.8

Value

$42.31

PnL

+$4.51

Record

2-440 (442)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$77.54

Value

$35.58

PnL

-$7.15

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$13.43

Value

$18.72

PnL

+$5.28

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$11.25

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$2.93

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

User7429<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.03

Record

16%

38-206 (244)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (17 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.