Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $684 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$683.99
$278.65
38.4¢ → 77¢
+101% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 38¢ | $1.0K | $607.25 | +$337.55 | 52% 30994-29002 (59996) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $213.28 | $54.72 | -$66.5 | 34% 19360-36909 (56269) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $14.5 | $16.1 | +$7.67 | 68% 425-199 (624) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $6 | $5.92 | -$0.08 | 77% 12718-3882 (16600) |
balthazarInvested
$1,038.51
Value
$607.25
PnL
+$337.55
Record
52%
30994-29002 (59996)
Invested
$213.28
Value
$54.72
PnL
-$66.5
Record
34%
19360-36909 (56269)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$7.67
Record
68%
425-199 (624)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
77%
12718-3882 (16600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.