Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $248 held · ends Nov 7

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$247.67

Combined PnL

-$140.66

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 7.5¢

-83% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$42.67

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$155.18

No3 traders

Total Value$38.52

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$14.53

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarARB<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$1.1K	$166.46	-$123.69	52% 30902-28975 (59877)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.2¢	$47.08	$83.38	+$17.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.1¢	$366.29	$83.08	-$141.27
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 28.7¢	$131.4	$19.16	-$36.27	56% 18822-14981 (33803)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 55.8¢	$224.13	$19.03	-$114.15	34% 19212-36836 (56048)
Xeny<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.64	$18.27	+$9.62	60% 1028-690 (1718)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 51¢	$12.05	$15.6	+$3.55	53% 8568-7638 (16206)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.3	$4.65	+$1.35	77% 12697-3875 (16572)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$9.24	$4.48	-$4.76	16% 383-1960 (2343)

balthazarARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,128.3

Value

$166.46

PnL

-$123.69

Record

52%

30902-28975 (59877)

Both legs:

No$47.0852.2¢+$17.59

Yes$366.2933.1¢-$141.27

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$131.4

Value

$19.16

PnL

-$36.27

Record

56%

18822-14981 (33803)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.13

Value

$19.03

PnL

-$114.15

Record

34%

19212-36836 (56048)

Xeny<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$9.62

Record

60%

1028-690 (1718)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$3.55

Record

53%

8568-7638 (16206)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$1.35

Record

77%

12697-3875 (16572)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.24

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$4.76

Record

16%

383-1960 (2343)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.