Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $439 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$439.06
$94.6
42.4¢ → 83¢
+96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
70h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 13.8¢ | $113.27 | $166.18 | +$61.84 | 52% 31278-29168 (60446) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 64.3¢ | $114.79 | $141.92 | +$27.12 | 53% 8691-7793 (16484) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $67.78 | $70.36 | +$2.57 | 55% 16391-13160 (29551) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 25.9¢ | $16.29 | $49.77 | +$31.91 | 19% 2967-12558 (15525) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $38.25 | $10.5 | -$27.75 | 18% 109-507 (616) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $1.43 | $0.34 | -$1.09 | 17% 1381-6733 (8114) |
balthazarInvested
$113.27
Value
$166.18
PnL
+$61.84
Record
52%
31278-29168 (60446)
Invested
$114.79
Value
$141.92
PnL
+$27.12
Record
53%
8691-7793 (16484)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$67.78
Value
$70.36
PnL
+$2.57
Record
55%
16391-13160 (29551)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$16.29
Value
$49.77
PnL
+$31.91
Record
19%
2967-12558 (15525)
Invested
$38.25
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$27.75
Record
18%
109-507 (616)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$1.09
Record
17%
1381-6733 (8114)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.