Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 99¢ · $549 held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$549.31

Combined PnL

-$105.16

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 98.8¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$499.89

Total Shares503

Combined PnL+$115.58

Yes7 traders

Total Value$49.39

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$220.73

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 67.1¢	$1.6K	$263.08	+$169.65	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
PR Prinas	Noavg 88.4¢	$200.96	$225.12	-$54.47	80% 320-78 (398)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$258.86	$32.62	+$1.99	53% 8555-7625 (16180)
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$181.95	$7.33	-$167.02	55% 342-284 (626)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$5.18	$6.14	+$0.96	77% 12686-3871 (16557)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$9.81	$5.54	-$0.56	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$41.46	$5.53	+$14.08	19% 2872-12252 (15124)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 37.3¢	$150.11	$1.91	-$65.85	34% 19186-36821 (56007)
XenyCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$5.62	$1.72	-$3.9	60% 1028-690 (1718)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.69	$0.25	-$0.44	56% 18814-14973 (33787)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$9.09	$0.02	+$0.41	23% 1782-6021 (7803)

balthazar

Invested

$1,613.86

Value

$263.08

PnL

+$169.65

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

Prinas

Invested

$200.96

Value

$225.12

PnL

-$54.47

Record

80%

320-78 (398)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$258.86

Value

$32.62

PnL

+$1.99

Record

53%

8555-7625 (16180)

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.95

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$167.02

Record

55%

342-284 (626)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$0.96

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.56

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.46

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$14.08

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.11

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$65.85

Record

34%

19186-36821 (56007)

XenyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.62

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$3.9

Record

60%

1028-690 (1718)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.44

Record

56%

18814-14973 (33787)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.41

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.