Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Roda JC Kerkrade vs. FC Volendam: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 31¢ · $538 held · ended Nov 14

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$537.55

Combined PnL

-$111.24

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 30.5¢

-44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$312.22

Total Shares829

Combined PnL-$147.76

Under6 traders

Total Value$225.33

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$36.52

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$351.7	$224.38	-$127.32	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$60.36	$69.9	+$9.55	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 39.3¢	$40.66	$57.87	+$17.21	37% 996-1715 (2711)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 67¢	$47.4	$47.05	-$0.35	64% 313-173 (486)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$45.33	$45.98	+$0.65	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 53.4¢	$54.34	$36.1	-$18.24	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$17.4	$25.68	+$8.28	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
RN1<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$11.59	$13.45	+$1.86	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$11.4	$11.38	-$0.02	36% 979-1704 (2683)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 86¢	$8.6	$5.75	-$2.85	41% 147-210 (357)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$351.7

Value

$224.38

PnL

-$127.32

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$60.36

Value

$69.9

PnL

+$9.55

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$40.66

Value

$57.87

PnL

+$17.21

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$47.4

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

64%

313-173 (486)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.33

Value

$45.98

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.34

Value

$36.1

PnL

-$18.24

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$17.4

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$8.28

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$11.59

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$1.86

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.6

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$2.85

Record

41%

147-210 (357)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.