Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 208.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 57¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$248.41

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 57.5¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,218

Combined PnL+$108.85

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,798

Combined PnL-$357.26

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 62.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$16.71	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.1¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$116.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.4¢	$935.21	$1.0K	+$99.79
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$76.15	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 73.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$64.21	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.1¢	$964.83	$679.8	-$285.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.3¢	$439.09	$659.91	+$220.82
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 65.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$180.15	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 59.7¢	$977.07	$1.2K	+$239.31	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.9¢	$459.13	$769.94	+$310.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.7¢	$517.94	$446.44	-$71.5
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 64.3¢	$899.09	$720.49	-$178.61	53% 290-259 (549)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 56.5¢	$284.24	$179.96	+$38.17	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.5¢	$110.26	$100.43	+$1.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.4¢	$43.36	$79.54	+$36.18
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$66.38	$94.69	+$28.31	31% 412-897 (1309)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$66.38	$69.99	+$3.61	30% 402-921 (1323)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$59.5	$61	+$1.5	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 58.1¢	$78.25	$45.55	+$0.85	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$12.22	$13	+$0.78	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 60¢	$6	$5.15	-$0.85	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,500.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$16.71

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$1,565.6562.1¢-$116.5

Under$935.2138.4¢+$99.79

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$1,561.13

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$76.15

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,403.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$64.21

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$964.8373.1¢-$285.03

Under$439.0932.3¢+$220.82

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,469.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$180.15

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$977.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$239.31

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Under$459.1328.9¢+$310.81

Over$517.9459.7¢-$71.5

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$899.09

Value

$720.49

PnL

-$178.61

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$284.24

Value

$179.96

PnL

+$38.17

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Over$110.2656.5¢+$1.99

Under$43.3626.4¢+$36.18

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$94.69

PnL

+$28.31

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$3.61

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$59.5

Value

$61

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$78.25

Value

$45.55

PnL

+$0.85

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.22

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.85

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.