Spread: Pacers (-8.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (33%) · Wizards at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers43¢Wizards57¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.41

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 57.5¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers43%

Wizards57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,969

Combined PnL-$283.36

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$471.22

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL+$263.96

Wizards — 33%Pacers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$219.36	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pacersavg 16.4¢	$157.34	$407.4	+$250.06	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
BI biying88888	Wizardsavg 56¢	$448	$384	-$64	37% 121-203 (324)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 49.6¢	$398.06	$302.63	-$0.12	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.3¢	$149.21	$167.25	+$18.04
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.6¢	$157.96	$135.37	-$18.16
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Pacersavg 15¢	$15	$42.5	+$27.5	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$37.77	$12	-$5.61	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$17.31	$9.32	-$7.99	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$1,322.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$219.36

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

FlaznorpCTR

Pacers

Invested

$157.34

Value

$407.4

PnL

+$250.06

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

biying88888

Wizards

Invested

$448

Value

$384

PnL

-$64

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$398.06

Value

$302.63

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Wizards$149.2151.3¢+$18.04

Pacers$157.9649.6¢-$18.16

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$15

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$37.77

Value

$12

PnL

-$5.61

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$17.31

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$7.99

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.