Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pacers (51%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-7.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (44%) · Wizards at 50¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers51¢Wizards49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$373.26

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 49.5¢

-18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pacers51%

Wizards50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,579

Combined PnL+$264.83

Pacers5 traders

Total Value$901.72

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL+$108.44

Wizards — 44%Pacers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Wizardsavg 61.6¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$212.01	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pacersavg 30.6¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$563.29	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 30.6¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$714.38
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 61.3¢	$787.09	$636	-$151.09
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 53.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$24.61	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 44¢	$903.09	$1.3K	+$401.21
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 53.1¢	$1.2K	$829.18	-$376.59
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Pacersavg 38.4¢	$604.72	$654.09	+$49.37	53% 290-259 (549)
38 38791873984189CTR	Wizardsavg 50.3¢	$151.87	$190.26	+$38.39	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
LI Limousin	Pacersavg 31¢	$66.38	$108.14	+$41.76	30% 402-921 (1323)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46.7¢	$85.01	$93.3	+$24.72	49% 693-734 (1427)
VE Venusian<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$66.38	$76.19	+$9.81	31% 411-924 (1335)
E5 0xe550...be3fARB<$100	Wizardsavg 62.5¢	$95.94	$73.11	-$4.93	—
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 62.5¢	$66.87	$52.99	-$13.88
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 35.4¢	$14.11	$20.12	+$8.95
C7 0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 60¢	$58.8	$48.51	-$10.29	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Pacersavg 53.7¢	$38.84	$36.54	-$2.3	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Pacersavg 32¢	$16.96	$26.77	+$9.81	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Wizards

Invested

$4,906.29

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$212.01

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,883.14

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$563.29

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,090.2230.6¢+$714.38

Wizards$787.0961.3¢-$151.09

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2,108.87

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$24.61

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Wizards$903.0944¢+$401.21

Pacers$1,205.7853.1¢-$376.59

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Pacers

Invested

$604.72

Value

$654.09

PnL

+$49.37

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

38791873984189CTR

Wizards

Invested

$151.87

Value

$190.26

PnL

+$38.39

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Limousin

Pacers

Invested

$66.38

Value

$108.14

PnL

+$41.76

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$85.01

Value

$93.3

PnL

+$24.72

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Venusian<$100

Pacers

Invested

$66.38

Value

$76.19

PnL

+$9.81

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0xe550...be3fARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$95.94

Value

$73.11

PnL

-$4.93

Record

—

Both legs:

Wizards$66.8762.5¢-$13.88

Pacers$14.1135.4¢+$8.95

0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$58.8

Value

$48.51

PnL

-$10.29

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Pacers

Invested

$38.84

Value

$36.54

PnL

-$2.3

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Pacers

Invested

$16.96

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$9.81

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.