Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pacers (56%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (38%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers56¢Wizards44¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$25.4

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 44.5¢

-27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pacers56%

Wizards45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,686

Combined PnL-$400.61

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL+$426.01

Wizards — 38%Pacers — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Wizardsavg 74.3¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$471.93	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 24.2¢	$244.61	$561.01	+$316.4	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
JU justaluckydude	Pacersavg 27¢	$270	$555	+$285	38% 222-363 (585)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Wizardsavg 40.3¢	$442.93	$489.06	+$46.13	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Wizardsavg 54.8¢	$268.22	$285.71	+$17.49	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
LI LightParadox	Pacersavg 45¢	$337.26	$191.11	-$146.15	31% 412-920 (1332)
RN1ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$196.56	$157.58	-$21.67	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 55¢	$124.54	$100.77	-$24.78
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52.5¢	$53.71	$56.81	+$3.11
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 62¢	$99.1	$101.07	+$1.98	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 62¢	$57.66	$53.47	-$4.19
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 37¢	$41.44	$47.6	+$6.16
VE Venusian	Pacersavg 44.4¢	$112.88	$64.81	-$48.07	31% 411-924 (1335)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Pacersavg 38¢	$105.9	$60.07	+$11.83	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$40.94	$45.03	+$4.09	39% 395-620 (1015)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45.3¢	$42.34	$34.71	+$3.62	49% 693-734 (1427)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$7.67	$11.99	+$4.33	47% 299-342 (641)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$1.95	$3.05	+$1.1	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Pacersavg 24¢	$1.2	$2.78	+$1.58	—

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,326.28

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$471.93

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$244.61

Value

$561.01

PnL

+$316.4

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

justaluckydude

Pacers

Invested

$270

Value

$555

PnL

+$285

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

6512395314597884CTR

Wizards

Invested

$442.93

Value

$489.06

PnL

+$46.13

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Wizards

Invested

$268.22

Value

$285.71

PnL

+$17.49

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

LightParadox

Pacers

Invested

$337.26

Value

$191.11

PnL

-$146.15

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

RN1ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$196.56

Value

$157.58

PnL

-$21.67

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Wizards$124.5455¢-$24.78

Pacers$53.7152.5¢+$3.11

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$99.1

Value

$101.07

PnL

+$1.98

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Wizards$57.6662¢-$4.19

Pacers$41.4437¢+$6.16

Venusian

Pacers

Invested

$112.88

Value

$64.81

PnL

-$48.07

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Pacers

Invested

$105.9

Value

$60.07

PnL

+$11.83

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

sentrioCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$40.94

Value

$45.03

PnL

+$4.09

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$42.34

Value

$34.71

PnL

+$3.62

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

SnakeBall<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7.67

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$4.33

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.95

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$1.1

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$1.58

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.