Spread: Pacers (-18.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (40%) · Wizards at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$122.67
88¢ → 93.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Wizardsavg 88¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$122.89 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 98¢ | $379.39 | $268.82 | -$106.71 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 98¢ | $189.38 | $180.68 | -$8.7 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 12.3¢ | $166.31 | $88.14 | -$98.01 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wizardsavg 90¢ | $45 | $44.5 | -$0.5 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 4.2¢ | $10.9 | $16.72 | +$5.82 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 11¢ | $6.93 | $4.1 | -$2.84 | 60% 2617-1724 (4341) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 11¢ | $6.6 | $3.9 | -$2.7 | 64% 280-160 (440) |
Invested
$1,720.57
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$122.89
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$379.39
Value
$268.82
PnL
-$106.71
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
Invested
$45
Value
$44.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$16.72
PnL
+$5.82
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$2.84
Record
60%
2617-1724 (4341)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$2.7
Record
64%
280-160 (440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.