Spread: Pacers (-10.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (30%) · Wizards at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers32¢Wizards68¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 30%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$36.72

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 68.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers32%

Wizards69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,378

Combined PnL-$199.02

Pacers7 traders

Total Value$517.23

Total Shares1,659

Combined PnL+$235.74

Wizards — 30%Pacers — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 88.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$290.09	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Wizardsavg 60¢	$600	$685	+$85	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Pacersavg 10¢	$68.1	$214.52	+$146.42	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 16.2¢	$65.13	$126.95	+$61.82	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pacersavg 13¢	$32.5	$78.75	+$46.25	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Pacersavg 43¢	$68.8	$50.4	-$18.4	64% 280-160 (440)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 60.4¢	$58.02	$42.43	+$6.07	49% 693-734 (1427)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pacersavg 21.5¢	$18.15	$26.57	+$8.42	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1CTR<$100	Pacersavg 37.9¢	$24.65	$13.65	-$11	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 26¢	$4.16	$6.4	+$2.24	31% 411-924 (1335)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$1,582.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$290.09

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Wizards

Invested

$600

Value

$685

PnL

+$85

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Pacers

Invested

$68.1

Value

$214.52

PnL

+$146.42

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$65.13

Value

$126.95

PnL

+$61.82

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$32.5

Value

$78.75

PnL

+$46.25

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$68.8

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$18.4

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$58.02

Value

$42.43

PnL

+$6.07

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$18.15

Value

$26.57

PnL

+$8.42

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$24.65

Value

$13.65

PnL

-$11

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4.16

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$2.24

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.