Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (61%) · Under at 21¢ · $103K held · ended Nov 14

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 61%

Total Value

$102.7K

Combined PnL

$20.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 21¢

-59% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$49.4K

Total Shares99,940

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over7 traders

Total Value$53.3K

Total Shares63,841

Combined PnL+$22.0K

Under — 61%Over — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$46.9K	$45.4K	$-1.5K	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 49.4¢	$22.9K	$36.5K	+$13.7K	49% 266-281 (547)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 48¢	$4.2K	$8.3K	+$4.1K	49% 517-539 (1056)
MA marvelousmarvin	Overavg 47¢	$4.0K	$8.1K	+$4.1K	31% 20-44 (64)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$70	50% 368-373 (741)
RN1CTR	Underavg 58¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$80.88	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 56.6¢	$1.2K	$870.94	-$293.63	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$263.29	$253.33	-$9.96	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 51.5¢	$795.8	$181.17	+$62.85	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormake	Overavg 47¢	$84.65	$142.29	+$57.64	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$125.53	$121.03	-$4.5	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
MI micky456	Overavg 79¢	$108.52	$108.52	+$0	47% 489-544 (1033)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$82.25	$78.15	-$4.1	43% 920-1244 (2164)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 79¢	$72.35	$72.35	-$0	64% 535-298 (833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 10.4¢	$14.1	$14.86	+$0.76	37% 841-1416 (2257)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 29¢	$3.03	$8.25	+$5.22	36% 883-1569 (2452)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 58.4¢	$9.02	$2.67	-$1.3	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$4.24	$0.36	-$3.88	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$46,904.57

Value

$45.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$22,869.44

Value

$36.5K

PnL

+$13.7K

Record

49%

266-281 (547)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$4,182.12

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

49%

517-539 (1056)

marvelousmarvin

Over

Invested

$3,972.43

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

31%

20-44 (64)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$70

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,095.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$80.88

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,165.89

Value

$870.94

PnL

-$293.63

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$263.29

Value

$253.33

PnL

-$9.96

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$795.8

Value

$181.17

PnL

+$62.85

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$84.65

Value

$142.29

PnL

+$57.64

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$125.53

Value

$121.03

PnL

-$4.5

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

micky456

Over

Invested

$108.52

Value

$108.52

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.25

Value

$78.15

PnL

-$4.1

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$72.35

Value

$72.35

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$0.76

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$3.03

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$5.22

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.02

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$1.3

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.24

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$3.88

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.