Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 99¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 98.6¢

+94% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,761

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares12,675

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Overavg 50¢	$5.9K	$11.5K	+$5.6K	30% 19-44 (63)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50¢	$5.9K	$4.8K	$-1.1K	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69¢	$734.42	$651.11	-$51.24	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$424.25	$345.31	-$78.94	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 34.5¢	$271.47	$158.1	-$113.37	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$55.09	$89.13	+$34.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.5¢	$216.38	$68.97	-$147.41
nigiri99	Overavg 39¢	$90.87	$128.15	+$37.28	52% 499-463 (962)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$59.95	$79.09	+$19.14	50% 358-364 (722)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$32.18	$48.54	+$16.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 10¢	$27.78	$30.56	+$2.78
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$15.44	$10.12	-$5.32	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 26.7¢	$19.91	$8.21	-$11.7	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.85	+$0.4	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$5.48	$4.05	-$1.44	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 60¢	$3	$3.15	+$0.15	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 38¢	$2.11	$3.05	+$0.94	49% 127-130 (257)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.78	$2.23	+$0.45	37% 819-1385 (2204)

marvelousmarvin

Over

Invested

$5,924.82

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

30%

19-44 (63)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$5,909.82

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$734.42

Value

$651.11

PnL

-$51.24

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$424.25

Value

$345.31

PnL

-$78.94

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$271.47

Value

$158.1

PnL

-$113.37

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Both legs:

Over$55.0955¢+$34.04

Under$216.3834.5¢-$147.41

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$90.87

Value

$128.15

PnL

+$37.28

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$59.95

Value

$79.09

PnL

+$19.14

Record

50%

358-364 (722)

Both legs:

Over$32.1859¢+$16.36

Under$27.7810¢+$2.78

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.44

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$5.32

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.91

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$11.7

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.48

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$2.11

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.94

Record

49%

127-130 (257)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.45

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.