Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (58%) · Jazz at 72¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets28¢Jazz72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$255.56

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 72¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets28%

Jazz72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,295

Combined PnL+$149.52

Rockets5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,578

Combined PnL-$405.08

Jazz — 58%Rockets — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$97.66	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Rocketsavg 46.8¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$46.14	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48.6¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$500.59
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 46.8¢	$1.6K	$993.73	-$546.73
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$758.18	-$287.91	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 77¢	$217.21	$182.07	-$35.14	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 60.3¢	$527.08	$138.05	-$28.15	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 38.9¢	$49.71	$69.05	+$69.16
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 60.3¢	$90.46	$69	-$97.31
MA MadridTime<$100	Jazzavg 25¢	$71.56	$91.72	+$20.16	37% 926-1560 (2486)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 40.1¢	$69.57	$72.01	+$2.44	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51¢	$33.63	$49.12	+$15.5
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 40.1¢	$35.95	$22.89	-$13.06
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Jazzavg 44.5¢	$30.2	$51.96	+$21.75	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 61¢	$74.42	$35.38	-$39.04	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 65.2¢	$73.71	$32.77	-$40.94	44% 422-532 (954)
PA Pan9X	Jazzavg 61.4¢	$101.19	$19.06	+$2.77	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
LI Limousin<$100	Jazzavg 25¢	$13.75	$17.6	+$3.85	36% 883-1569 (2452)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jazzavg 25¢	$10.41	$13.32	+$2.91	36% 911-1587 (2498)
LR lryyy<$100	Jazzavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.95	+$0.4	45% 712-885 (1597)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$2.9	-$2.05	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$2,533.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$97.66

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3,156.45

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$46.14

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,08648.6¢+$500.59

Rockets$1,602.7346.8¢-$546.73

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,237.07

Value

$758.18

PnL

-$287.91

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$217.21

Value

$182.07

PnL

-$35.14

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$527.08

Value

$138.05

PnL

-$28.15

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Both legs:

Jazz$49.7138.9¢+$69.16

Rockets$90.4660.3¢-$97.31

MadridTime<$100

Jazz

Invested

$71.56

Value

$91.72

PnL

+$20.16

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$69.57

Value

$72.01

PnL

+$2.44

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Both legs:

Jazz$33.6351¢+$15.5

Rockets$35.9540.1¢-$13.06

topdogbigboi<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.2

Value

$51.96

PnL

+$21.75

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$74.42

Value

$35.38

PnL

-$39.04

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$73.71

Value

$32.77

PnL

-$40.94

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

Pan9X

Jazz

Invested

$101.19

Value

$19.06

PnL

+$2.77

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Limousin<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.75

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$3.85

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

LightParadox<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10.41

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$2.91

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

lryyy<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$4.95

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$2.05

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.