Spread: Rockets (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets93¢Jazz7¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 67%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$23.03

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 92.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets93%

Jazz8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,331

Combined PnL+$141.98

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$235.95

Total Shares2,281

Combined PnL-$165.01

Rockets — 67%Jazz — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 86¢	$860	$910	+$50	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormake	Rocketsavg 87.9¢	$534.46	$549.14	+$14.68	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
RN1	Rocketsavg 86.1¢	$252.32	$266.56	+$14.24	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
65 6512395314597884	Rocketsavg 61.6¢	$168.99	$197.51	+$28.52	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 15.2¢	$311.16	$174.5	-$136.66	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
38 38791873984189<$100	Rocketsavg 60¢	$66.6	$91.01	+$34.3	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$86	$59	-$27	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 87¢	$41.04	$23.64	+$0.6	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
MI micky456<$100	Rocketsavg 87¢	$18.27	$18.9	+$0.63	47% 489-544 (1033)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Rocketsavg 76¢	$13.68	$12.69	-$0.99	44% 422-532 (954)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Jazzavg 17.7¢	$3.02	$1.45	-$1.57	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jazzavg 7¢	$0.78	$1	+$0.22	37% 841-1416 (2257)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$860

Value

$910

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormake

Rockets

Invested

$534.46

Value

$549.14

PnL

+$14.68

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$252.32

Value

$266.56

PnL

+$14.24

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

6512395314597884

Rockets

Invested

$168.99

Value

$197.51

PnL

+$28.52

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$311.16

Value

$174.5

PnL

-$136.66

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

38791873984189<$100

Rockets

Invested

$66.6

Value

$91.01

PnL

+$34.3

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$86

Value

$59

PnL

-$27

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$41.04

Value

$23.64

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

micky456<$100

Rockets

Invested

$18.27

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0.63

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

justaluckydude<$100

Rockets

Invested

$13.68

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$0.99

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.02

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.57

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.78

Value

PnL

+$0.22

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.