Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Jazz (99%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-18.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (62%) · Rockets at 1.0¢ · $792 held · ended Nov 14

Rockets1¢Jazz99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 62%

Total Value

$792.38

Combined PnL

-$499.51

Smart Money Entry

22.4¢ → 1¢

-96% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets1%

Jazz99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets8 traders

Total Value$385.18

Total Shares3,159

Combined PnL-$488.3

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$407.2

Total Shares445

Combined PnL-$11.21

Rockets — 62%Jazz — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 19.5¢	$1.5K	$182.59	-$343.52	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
MI micky456	Jazzavg 94¢	$174.47	$143.11	-$14.36	47% 489-544 (1033)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 86.8¢	$132	$127.58	-$4.42	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
SU suitcase6628	Jazzavg 94¢	$112.8	$117.12	+$4.32	64% 535-298 (833)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 38.4¢	$374.96	$86.13	-$164.07	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 6.5¢	$979.48	$68.1	+$86.62	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 14.7¢	$56.68	$19.27	-$3.58	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
poshposhCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 37¢	$48.64	$16.04	-$32.6	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 38¢	$38	$12.2	-$25.8	33% 144-286 (430)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 95¢	$9.69	$9.96	+$0.27	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Jazzavg 60¢	$6.44	$9.43	+$2.99	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 7¢	$0.38	$0.66	+$0.28	37% 841-1416 (2257)
RN1CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 30.5¢	$5.81	$0.19	-$5.62	56% 5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,520.25

Value

$182.59

PnL

-$343.52

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

micky456

Jazz

Invested

$174.47

Value

$143.11

PnL

-$14.36

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$132

Value

$127.58

PnL

-$4.42

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

suitcase6628

Jazz

Invested

$112.8

Value

$117.12

PnL

+$4.32

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$374.96

Value

$86.13

PnL

-$164.07

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$979.48

Value

$68.1

PnL

+$86.62

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$56.68

Value

$19.27

PnL

-$3.58

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

poshposhCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$48.64

Value

$16.04

PnL

-$32.6

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$38

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$25.8

Record

33%

144-286 (430)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Jazz

Invested

$6.44

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$2.99

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.28

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

RN1CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.81

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$5.62

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.