Spread: Rockets (-14.5)

9 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (39%) · Jazz at 100¢ · $85K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets<1¢Jazz>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 39%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$85.2K

Combined PnL

$10.4K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 99.7¢

+108% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 23 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets0%

Jazz100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$60.0K

Total Shares84,498

Combined PnL+$19.0K

Rockets14 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares35,973

Combined PnL$-8.5K

Jazz — 39%Rockets — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 65% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Jazzavg 47.2¢	$36.7K	$54.4K	+$17.7K	49% 121-127 (248)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52.5¢	$17.7K	$14.4K	$-3.3K	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52.5¢	$13.2K	$7.6K	$-5.7K
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46¢	$4.5K	$6.8K	+$2.3K
TM TMingchanCTR	Rocketsavg 53¢	$10.6K	$6.0K	$-4.6K	28% 16-41 (57)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Rocketsavg 54¢	$5.4K	$3.0K	$-2.4K	26% 39-112 (151)
nigiri99	Jazzavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$524.92	51% 499-470 (969)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 52.9¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	-$873.02	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 46¢	$540.71	$822.82	+$282.11	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
MI micky456	Jazzavg 68.8¢	$526.88	$744.89	+$218.01	47% 489-544 (1033)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 74.2¢	$491.28	$643.46	+$152.18	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jazzavg 75.8¢	$638.29	$597.33	-$40.96	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
RN1	Jazzavg 53.6¢	$564.19	$534.75	-$29.44	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 54.1¢	$383.57	$402.72	+$31.67	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 52.3¢	$314	$180	-$134	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
VE Venusian	Jazzavg 41¢	$105.3	$179.78	+$74.48	36% 893-1601 (2494)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Rocketsavg 53¢	$312.7	$177	-$135.7	43% 34-45 (79)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Rocketsavg 60¢	$306.12	$153.06	-$153.06	38% 17-28 (45)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 30.4¢	$91.83	$32.27	+$2.88	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 49.6¢	$531.26	$26.46	-$1.75	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 18.3¢	$9.4	$15.4	+$6	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 29.9¢	$1.2K	$5.28	-$228.68	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 1.1¢	$1.1	$2.75	+$1.65	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
dips.CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 1.1¢	$0.65	$1.74	+$1.09	47% 877-973 (1850)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 55¢	$2.75	$1.5	-$1.25	40% 614-914 (1528)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 9.3¢	$4.55	$1.37	-$3.17	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Jazz

Invested

$36,685.34

Value

$54.4K

PnL

+$17.7K

Record

49%

121-127 (248)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$17,714.62

Value

$14.4K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Both legs:

Rockets$13,235.5252.5¢$-5.7K

Jazz$4,479.146¢+$2.3K

TMingchanCTR

Rockets

Invested

$10,600

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

28%

16-41 (57)

luckycat888888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$5,400

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

26%

39-112 (151)

nigiri99

Jazz

Invested

$1,145.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$524.92

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,376.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$873.02

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$540.71

Value

$822.82

PnL

+$282.11

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

micky456

Jazz

Invested

$526.88

Value

$744.89

PnL

+$218.01

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$491.28

Value

$643.46

PnL

+$152.18

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jazz

Invested

$638.29

Value

$597.33

PnL

-$40.96

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$564.19

Value

$534.75

PnL

-$29.44

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$383.57

Value

$402.72

PnL

+$31.67

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$314

Value

$180

PnL

-$134

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Venusian

Jazz

Invested

$105.3

Value

$179.78

PnL

+$74.48

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Rockets

Invested

$312.7

Value

$177

PnL

-$135.7

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Rockets

Invested

$306.12

Value

$153.06

PnL

-$153.06

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$91.83

Value

$32.27

PnL

+$2.88

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$531.26

Value

$26.46

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$9.4

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$6

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,232.96

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$228.68

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$1.65

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

dips.CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$0.65

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$1.09

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.75

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$1.25

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$4.55

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$3.17

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 23 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 65% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.