Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 242.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 12¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$61.51

Smart Money Entry

12.4¢ → 11.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$847.49

Total Shares951

Combined PnL+$34.18

Over7 traders

Total Value$802.28

Total Shares6,157

Combined PnL+$27.33

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 85.5¢	$636.18	$662.06	+$25.88	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 12¢	$258.6	$237.05	-$21.55	28% 110-277 (387)
GA GaditimaCTR	Overavg 11¢	$160.66	$160.66	+$0	46% 172-204 (376)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 13¢	$139.21	$149.32	+$10.11	49% 303-310 (613)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 12.4¢	$79.33	$126.35	+$48.87	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 85¢	$99.38	$104.06	+$4.68	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 14.9¢	$111.49	$100.68	-$10.81	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 85¢	$70.55	$73.87	+$3.32	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 13.4¢	$53.44	$21.88	+$0.54	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 86¢	$8.33	$7.5	+$0.3	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$6.18	$6.35	+$0.17	54% 1122-947 (2069)

RN1

Under

Invested

$636.18

Value

$662.06

PnL

+$25.88

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$258.6

Value

$237.05

PnL

-$21.55

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

GaditimaCTR

Over

Invested

$160.66

Value

$160.66

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$139.21

Value

$149.32

PnL

+$10.11

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$79.33

Value

$126.35

PnL

+$48.87

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$99.38

Value

$104.06

PnL

+$4.68

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$111.49

Value

$100.68

PnL

-$10.81

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$70.55

Value

$73.87

PnL

+$3.32

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.44

Value

$21.88

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.33

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.