Spread: 76ers (-21.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

76ers7¢Raptors93¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$33.41

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 93¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers7%

Raptors93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,139

Combined PnL-$18.36

76ers4 traders

Total Value$102.29

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL-$15.05

Raptors — 50%76ers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Raptors) disagree here.

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Raptorsavg 92.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$21.98	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	76ersavg 9.1¢	$94.29	$76.96	-$17.33	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 91.2¢	$31.96	$33.13	+$1.17	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TA takeormake<$100	Raptorsavg 87¢	$28.71	$30.69	+$1.98	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	76ersavg 6.6¢	$10.76	$12.13	+$1.37	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
RN1CTR<$100	76ersavg 7¢	$7.04	$7.57	+$0.53	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	76ersavg 7¢	$5.25	$5.63	+$0.38	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Raptorsavg 84¢	$4.38	$4.85	+$0.47	45% 178-222 (400)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Raptors

Invested

$1,902.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$21.98

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$94.29

Value

$76.96

PnL

-$17.33

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$31.96

Value

$33.13

PnL

+$1.17

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

takeormake<$100

Raptors

Invested

$28.71

Value

$30.69

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.76

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

RN1CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.53

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

Forecastication2<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.47

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Raptors) disagree here.

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.