Spread: 76ers (-19.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

76ers10¢Raptors90¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$32.53

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 90.3¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers10%

Raptors90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL+$34.55

76ers6 traders

Total Value$78.56

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL-$2.01

Raptors — 40%76ers — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Raptorsavg 92.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$36.25	54% 1122-947 (2069)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 89¢	$220.9	$237.75	+$16.85	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 89¢	$178	$183.9	+$5.9
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 6.4¢	$42.9	$53.85	+$10.95
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 87.2¢	$134.17	$141.44	+$7.28	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	76ersavg 6¢	$60	$65	+$5	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
TA takeormake<$100	Raptorsavg 90.9¢	$63.47	$48.28	-$11.46	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
RN1<$100	Raptorsavg 84¢	$6.8	$9.28	+$2.48	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 8.6¢	$7.63	$4.52	+$1.24	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	76ersavg 10¢	$6.9	$3.14	-$3.76	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
dips.CTR<$100	76ersavg 10¢	$6.06	$2.76	-$3.3	46% 622-743 (1365)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	76ersavg 6¢	$3.93	$2.23	-$0.7	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	76ersavg 14¢	$1.4	$0.91	-$0.49	29% 113-278 (391)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Raptors

Invested

$1,499.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$36.25

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$220.9

Value

$237.75

PnL

+$16.85

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

Raptors$17889¢+$5.9

76ers$42.96.4¢+$10.95

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$134.17

Value

$141.44

PnL

+$7.28

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$60

Value

$65

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

takeormake<$100

Raptors

Invested

$63.47

Value

$48.28

PnL

-$11.46

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

RN1<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.8

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$2.48

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.63

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$1.24

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$6.9

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$3.76

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

dips.CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$6.06

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$3.3

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$3.93

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

forecastication4CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.49

Record

29%

113-278 (391)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.7%

90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.