Spread: Raptors (-8.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (86%) · 76ers at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors2¢76ers98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$283.47

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 98¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors2%

76ers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,725

Combined PnL+$296.72

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$7.4

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$13.25

76ers — 86%Raptors — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	76ersavg 77.4¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$290.61	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 93.5¢	$536.53	$550.7	+$14.18	54% 1122-947 (2069)
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 75¢	$534.08	$520.43	-$13.66	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
TA takeormake	76ersavg 85.6¢	$112.15	$121.74	+$15	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Raptorsavg 17.9¢	$451.46	$111.08	-$274.62	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 17.9¢	$354.83	$79.19	-$275.64
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 95¢	$31.55	$31.89	+$1.02
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	76ersavg 95¢	$83.6	$84.48	+$0.88	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 26.1¢	$20.65	$7.4	-$13.25	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 91¢	$65.25	$5.96	-$10.29	47% 2408-2683 (5091)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$1,095.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$290.61

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$536.53

Value

$550.7

PnL

+$14.18

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$534.08

Value

$520.43

PnL

-$13.66

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

takeormake

76ers

Invested

$112.15

Value

$121.74

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$451.46

Value

$111.08

PnL

-$274.62

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Raptors$354.8317.9¢-$275.64

76ers$31.5595¢+$1.02

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

76ers

Invested

$83.6

Value

$84.48

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$20.65

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$13.25

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$65.25

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$10.29

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.