Spread: Raptors (-16.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (60%) · 76ers at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors2¢76ers98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 60%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$12.19

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 98¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors2%

76ers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,264

Combined PnL+$5.63

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$27.93

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL+$6.56

76ers — 60%Raptors — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	76ersavg 98.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$4.03	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 98.6¢	$317.74	$307.74	-$10	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
RN1	76ersavg 98¢	$123.34	$122.89	-$0.45	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
PA Pan9X	76ersavg 98.1¢	$170.81	$97.22	+$5.31	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FE ferdinand2<$100	76ersavg 98.9¢	$55.53	$42.6	-$0.93	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Raptorsavg 3.1¢	$438.9	$12.09	+$17.97	54% 1122-947 (2069)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 3.1¢	$18.6	$12	-$6.6	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 91.3¢	$135.9	$6.1	+$15.74	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 2¢	$2.86	$2.86	+$0	2% 7-323 (330)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 11.8¢	$5.79	$0.98	-$4.81	58% 3342-2409 (5751)

Flaznorp

76ers

Invested

$2,699.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$4.03

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$317.74

Value

$307.74

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$123.34

Value

$122.89

PnL

-$0.45

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Pan9X

76ers

Invested

$170.81

Value

$97.22

PnL

+$5.31

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

ferdinand2<$100

76ers

Invested

$55.53

Value

$42.6

PnL

-$0.93

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Raptors

Invested

$438.9

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$17.97

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$18.6

Value

$12

PnL

-$6.6

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$135.9

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$15.74

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0

Record

7-323 (330)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5.79

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$4.81

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.