Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (60%) · 76ers at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors3¢76ers97¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$3.03

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 97.4¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors3%

76ers97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,567

Combined PnL+$7.81

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$40.22

Total Shares1,252

Combined PnL-$4.78

76ers — 60%Raptors — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 99¢	$828.27	$797.95	-$30.32	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 86.3¢	$439.21	$493.72	+$54.51	54% 1122-947 (2069)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 95.3¢	$114.36	$106.6	+$2.24	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 97¢	$80.14	$81.13	+$0.99	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	76ersavg 98.3¢	$81	$59.24	-$21.76	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 1¢	$7.25	$19.21	+$11.96	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
dips.CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 7.9¢	$23.18	$14.67	-$8.51	46% 622-743 (1365)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 81.1¢	$9.73	$11.88	+$2.15	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 7.9¢	$7.9	$5	-$2.9	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 5¢	$6.67	$1.33	-$5.33	2% 7-323 (330)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$828.27

Value

$797.95

PnL

-$30.32

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$439.21

Value

$493.72

PnL

+$54.51

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$114.36

Value

$106.6

PnL

+$2.24

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$80.14

Value

$81.13

PnL

+$0.99

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

76ers

Invested

$81

Value

$59.24

PnL

-$21.76

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$7.25

Value

$19.21

PnL

+$11.96

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

dips.CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$23.18

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$8.51

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$9.73

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$2.15

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$7.9

Value

PnL

-$2.9

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.67

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$5.33

Record

7-323 (330)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100076ers 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.