Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 7 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5

7 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 4.5¢ · $82K held · ended Nov 3

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$82.4K

Combined PnL

$33.92

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 4.5¢

-91% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 32 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$45.0K

Total Shares109,607

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Over25 traders

Total Value$29.4K

Total Shares51,923

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 77% · 31

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 52.9¢	$41.0K	$38.7K	$-2.3K	53% 631-550 (1181)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 47¢	$5.8K	$7.6K	+$1.8K	50% 7294-7399 (14693)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$6.4K	$7.4K	+$264.32	54% 17594-14785 (32379)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.1¢	$4.7K	$5.6K	+$241.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	+$22.52
PP ppku6298	Overavg 47¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$253.72	45% 102-127 (229)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$47.33	61% 4001-2519 (6520)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 47¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	-$30	47% 2639-2951 (5590)
AY ay118	Overavg 48.7¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	-$12.13	45% 41-50 (91)
LI Limousin	Overavg 47¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$0	54% 665-560 (1225)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$459.29	47% 1191-1345 (2536)
nigiri99	Overavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$0	46% 8117-9466 (17583)
HE Herdonia	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$39.06	51% 3492-3341 (6833)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$452.5	51% 22704-21519 (44223)
73 739633786	Overavg 48.6¢	$609.58	$620.24	+$10.66	—
LI LightParadox	Overavg 47.9¢	$462.83	$598.61	+$135.78	53% 661-577 (1238)
HI hi774c	Overavg 47¢	$1.1K	$550.37	+$27.8	51% 4866-4767 (9633)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 48.1¢	$694.58	$468.15	+$104.46	58% 44185-32138 (76323)
FE ferdinand2ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$475.78	$421.91	-$53.87	48% 5768-6225 (11993)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$154.14	$225.71	+$71.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$321.64	$196.2	-$125.44
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 50¢	$253.7	$284	-$14.7	53% 5773-5117 (10890)
TA takeormake	Overavg 48¢	$161.1	$246.68	+$85.58	53% 4478-3929 (8407)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 47¢	$399.98	$197.99	+$10	51% 1628-1567 (3195)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$147.43	$196.82	+$14.36	50% 25117-24828 (49945)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$106.23	$140.13	-$1.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.6¢	$41.2	$56.69	+$15.49
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50.3¢	$158.53	$195.3	+$36.77	53% 11379-9970 (21349)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 28.7¢	$305.34	$114.9	-$190.44	52% 3307-3073 (6380)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 57.9¢	$83.95	$95.1	+$11.15	50% 4097-4049 (8146)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 67.6¢	$73.14	$67.08	-$6.06	53% 646-576 (1222)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$41,038.65

Value

$38.7K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

631-550 (1181)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$5,798.4

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

7294-7399 (14693)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,443.49

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$264.32

Record

54%

17594-14785 (32379)

Both legs:

Over$4,682.4247.1¢+$241.8

Under$2,229.2650¢+$22.52

ppku6298

Over

Invested

$4,770

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$253.72

Record

45%

102-127 (229)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$4,729.47

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$47.33

Record

61%

4001-2519 (6520)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$2,820

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2639-2951 (5590)

ay118

Over

Invested

$2,529.77

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$12.13

Record

45%

41-50 (91)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$1,876.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

665-560 (1225)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,216.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$459.29

Record

47%

1191-1345 (2536)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,361.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8117-9466 (17583)

Herdonia

Over

Invested

$1,236.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$39.06

Record

51%

3492-3341 (6833)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,817.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$452.5

Record

51%

22704-21519 (44223)

739633786

Over

Invested

$609.58

Value

$620.24

PnL

+$10.66

Record

—

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$462.83

Value

$598.61

PnL

+$135.78

Record

53%

661-577 (1238)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,111.85

Value

$550.37

PnL

+$27.8

Record

51%

4866-4767 (9633)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$694.58

Value

$468.15

PnL

+$104.46

Record

58%

44185-32138 (76323)

ferdinand2ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$475.78

Value

$421.91

PnL

-$53.87

Record

48%

5768-6225 (11993)

Both legs:

Over$154.1447.5¢+$71.57

Under$321.6450¢-$125.44

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$253.7

Value

$284

PnL

-$14.7

Record

53%

5773-5117 (10890)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$161.1

Value

$246.68

PnL

+$85.58

Record

53%

4478-3929 (8407)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$399.98

Value

$197.99

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

1628-1567 (3195)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$147.43

Value

$196.82

PnL

+$14.36

Record

50%

25117-24828 (49945)

Both legs:

Over$106.2347¢-$1.13

Under$41.227.6¢+$15.49

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$158.53

Value

$195.3

PnL

+$36.77

Record

53%

11379-9970 (21349)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$305.34

Value

$114.9

PnL

-$190.44

Record

52%

3307-3073 (6380)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$83.95

Value

$95.1

PnL

+$11.15

Record

50%

4097-4049 (8146)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$73.14

Value

$67.08

PnL

-$6.06

Record

53%

646-576 (1222)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 32 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 78% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 77% · 31

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.