Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (93%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 7.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$25.82

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 7¢

-86% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,169

Combined PnL-$83.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$896.79

Total Shares1,648

Combined PnL+$57.87

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$983.25	-$105.26	55% 21-17 (38)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 48.1¢	$554.73	$599.86	+$45.14	56% 7944-6252 (14196)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 75.7¢	$354.68	$326.52	-$28.16	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
└ Over leg	Overavg 75.7¢	$233.91	$261.13	+$27.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.6¢	$120.77	$65.39	-$55.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47¢	$158.23	$171.69	+$13.47	46% 1423-1681 (3104)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$97.85	$93.84	-$4.01	53% 11951-10480 (22431)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$10.88	$32.97	+$22.09	47% 11271-12651 (23922)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 47¢	$23.5	$25.5	+$2	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$14.05	$19.6	+$5.55	61% 2451-1573 (4024)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 40¢	$4.62	$5.89	+$1.27	58% 19774-14525 (34299)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$9.1	$3.03	-$6.07	48% 59829-63853 (123682)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,088.51

Value

$983.25

PnL

-$105.26

Record

55%

21-17 (38)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$554.73

Value

$599.86

PnL

+$45.14

Record

56%

7944-6252 (14196)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$354.68

Value

$326.52

PnL

-$28.16

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

Both legs:

Over$233.9175.7¢+$27.23

Under$120.7728.6¢-$55.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$158.23

Value

$171.69

PnL

+$13.47

Record

46%

1423-1681 (3104)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$97.85

Value

$93.84

PnL

-$4.01

Record

53%

11951-10480 (22431)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.88

Value

$32.97

PnL

+$22.09

Record

47%

11271-12651 (23922)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.05

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$5.55

Record

61%

2451-1573 (4024)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$4.62

Value

$5.89

PnL

+$1.27

Record

58%

19774-14525 (34299)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.1

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$6.07

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.