Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$73.17

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 96.5¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL+$202.25

Over5 traders

Total Value$213.45

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL-$129.07

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 78.8¢	$719.06	$881.04	+$161.98	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 24¢	$76.53	$118.14	+$41.61	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 63¢	$31.5	$48.25	+$16.75	66% 803-421 (1224)
RN1	Underavg 82.6¢	$268.06	$47.67	-$2.14	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 63¢	$31.5	$44.75	+$13.25	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 76.5¢	$29.85	$37.64	+$7.78	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 36.9¢	$444.78	$35.69	-$162.1	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$42.09	$27.23	-$14.86	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$20	$22.5	+$2.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 68.8¢	$29.04	$12.94	+$4.37	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$6.12	$9.9	+$3.78	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.96	+$0.26	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$719.06

Value

$881.04

PnL

+$161.98

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$76.53

Value

$118.14

PnL

+$41.61

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$48.25

PnL

+$16.75

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

RN1

Under

Invested

$268.06

Value

$47.67

PnL

-$2.14

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$13.25

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$29.85

Value

$37.64

PnL

+$7.78

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$444.78

Value

$35.69

PnL

-$162.1

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.09

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$14.86

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$29.04

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$4.37

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.12

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$3.78

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.26

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.