Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$61.16

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 93¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$565.77

Total Shares785

Combined PnL-$14.3

Over6 traders

Total Value$549.99

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$75.46

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 67¢	$294.4	$233.05	-$14.35	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 39¢	$169.49	$212.95	+$43.46	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 33¢	$119.79	$191.85	+$72.06	50% 563-572 (1135)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 38¢	$97.28	$125.44	+$28.16	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 78¢	$121.72	$124.06	+$2.34	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 61¢	$199.81	$114.06	-$30.75	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$79	+$32	50% 714-704 (1418)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$84.83	$16.84	-$67.99	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 61¢	$15.86	$12.22	-$3.64	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.81	$2.59	-$0.22	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.45	+$0.75	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
MI micky456<$100	Underavg 47¢	$0.47	$0.79	+$0.32	48% 654-715 (1369)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.43	$0.46	-$0.97	48% 2668-2892 (5560)

RN1

Under

Invested

$294.4

Value

$233.05

PnL

-$14.35

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$169.49

Value

$212.95

PnL

+$43.46

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$119.79

Value

$191.85

PnL

+$72.06

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$97.28

Value

$125.44

PnL

+$28.16

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$121.72

Value

$124.06

PnL

+$2.34

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$199.81

Value

$114.06

PnL

-$30.75

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$79

PnL

+$32

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.83

Value

$16.84

PnL

-$67.99

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.86

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$3.64

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

micky456<$100

Under

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.43

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.