Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$81.95

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 51.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,333

Combined PnL+$238.83

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,467

Combined PnL-$156.88

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 44.3¢	$729.16	$936	+$206.84	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 42.6¢	$555.71	$548.45	-$7.26	49% 136-144 (280)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 58¢	$407.64	$449.81	+$42.17	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
RN1CTR	Underavg 64.6¢	$518.83	$333.53	-$185.3	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 46.6¢	$178.39	$217.25	+$38.86	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48¢	$130.82	$121.28	-$9.54	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$82.41	$89.46	+$7.05	69% 1742-781 (2523)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$73.98	$69.25	-$4.73	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.09	$61.27	-$4.82	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.09	$61.27	-$4.82	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 57¢	$202.97	$47.01	+$2.74	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.75	+$0.5	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 51¢	$4.22	$4.59	+$0.37	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.05	$3.85	-$0.21	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$3.26	$3.34	+$0.08	50% 501-511 (1012)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 32¢	$0.47	$0.49	+$0.01	39% 1675-2667 (4342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$729.16

Value

$936

PnL

+$206.84

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$555.71

Value

$548.45

PnL

-$7.26

Record

49%

136-144 (280)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$407.64

Value

$449.81

PnL

+$42.17

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$518.83

Value

$333.53

PnL

-$185.3

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$178.39

Value

$217.25

PnL

+$38.86

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$130.82

Value

$121.28

PnL

-$9.54

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.41

Value

$89.46

PnL

+$7.05

Record

69%

1742-781 (2523)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.98

Value

$69.25

PnL

-$4.73

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.09

Value

$61.27

PnL

-$4.82

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.09

Value

$61.27

PnL

-$4.82

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$202.97

Value

$47.01

PnL

+$2.74

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.75

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.37

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.