Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 207.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$75.09

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 84.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL-$82.66

Under3 traders

Total Value$98.57

Total Shares974

Combined PnL+$7.58

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Overavg 91¢	$847.3	$786.31	-$60.99	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 89.9¢	$161.18	$147.96	-$13.22	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 91¢	$62.69	$58.18	-$4.51	48% 654-715 (1369)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 90.2¢	$54.66	$50	-$4.67	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 9¢	$650.16	$48.3	+$6.14	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$43.74	$45.03	+$1.29	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 89.2¢	$67.82	$39.93	+$0.97	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 86¢	$6.14	$5.89	-$0.25	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$5.1	$5.25	+$0.15	50% 563-572 (1135)

dips.

Over

Invested

$847.3

Value

$786.31

PnL

-$60.99

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$161.18

Value

$147.96

PnL

-$13.22

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$62.69

Value

$58.18

PnL

-$4.51

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$54.66

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.67

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$650.16

Value

$48.3

PnL

+$6.14

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.74

Value

$45.03

PnL

+$1.29

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$67.82

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$6.14

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.