Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (80%) · Jazz at 53¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs47¢Jazz53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$388.79

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 53¢

-1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs47%

Jazz53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,124

Combined PnL-$15.71

Jazz16 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,944

Combined PnL+$404.49

Spurs — 20%Jazz — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 80% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwinCTR	Spursavg 46¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$77.77	7% 15-190 (205)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Jazzavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$178.83	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 54¢	$861.3	$925.1	+$63.8	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 54¢	$784.37	$900.57	+$116.2	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 57.4¢	$755.04	$683.1	-$71.94	50% 563-572 (1135)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$262.5	$278.25	+$15.75
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$262.5	$246.75	-$15.75
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Spursavg 56¢	$495.38	$432.81	-$62.57	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
RN1	Jazzavg 51.7¢	$365.99	$374.25	+$8.26	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 53.7¢	$289.16	$285.13	-$4.03	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
dips.	Jazzavg 54¢	$800.82	$217.62	+$70.72	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 44¢	$169.39	$204.05	+$34.66	50% 714-704 (1418)
US User7429	Jazzavg 54¢	$137.5	$157.93	+$20.43	44% 447-580 (1027)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Spursavg 46¢	$177.7	$146.8	-$30.9	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
TO topdogbigboi	Jazzavg 53.3¢	$100.24	$99.64	-$0.6	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$63.36	$63.36	+$0	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$30.21	$35.34	+$5.13	43% 257-336 (593)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Jazzavg 35.7¢	$16.51	$24.47	+$7.97	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 52.2¢	$351.44	$24.47	-$24.97	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 54¢	$22.14	$23.78	+$1.64	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 47.8¢	$43.03	$14.77	-$2.96	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$11.17	$12.53	+$1.36	49% 2930-3029 (5959)

saintaphextwinCTR

Spurs

Invested

$3,577.41

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$77.77

Record

15-190 (205)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Jazz

Invested

$1,207.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$178.83

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$861.3

Value

$925.1

PnL

+$63.8

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$784.37

Value

$900.57

PnL

+$116.2

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$755.04

Value

$683.1

PnL

-$71.94

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Jazz$262.550¢+$15.75

Spurs$262.550¢-$15.75

HomeRunHazardCTR

Spurs

Invested

$495.38

Value

$432.81

PnL

-$62.57

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$365.99

Value

$374.25

PnL

+$8.26

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$289.16

Value

$285.13

PnL

-$4.03

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

dips.

Jazz

Invested

$800.82

Value

$217.62

PnL

+$70.72

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$169.39

Value

$204.05

PnL

+$34.66

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

User7429

Jazz

Invested

$137.5

Value

$157.93

PnL

+$20.43

Record

44%

447-580 (1027)

MadridTimeCTR

Spurs

Invested

$177.7

Value

$146.8

PnL

-$30.9

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

topdogbigboi

Jazz

Invested

$100.24

Value

$99.64

PnL

-$0.6

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$63.36

Value

$63.36

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

NatoAlfista<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.21

Value

$35.34

PnL

+$5.13

Record

43%

257-336 (593)

SnakeBall<$100

Jazz

Invested

$16.51

Value

$24.47

PnL

+$7.97

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$351.44

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$24.97

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.14

Value

$23.78

PnL

+$1.64

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$43.03

Value

$14.77

PnL

-$2.96

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11.17

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$1.36

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 80% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.