Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

5 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (25%) · Spurs at 52¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Spurs52¢Jazz48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$342.49

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 52¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 20 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs52%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,200

Combined PnL-$104.21

Jazz15 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,614

Combined PnL+$446.7

Spurs — 25%Jazz — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 86% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwin	Spursavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$0	7% 15-190 (205)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$219.3	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Spursavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$20.8	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
dips.CTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$726.67	$815.65	+$88.98	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Jazzavg 47.3¢	$671.12	$677.75	+$6.63	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Jazzavg 46¢	$656.46	$553.38	+$28.1	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$525	$511.9	-$5.1	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$254.81	$259.9	+$5.4
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$262.5	$252	-$10.5
AN Anon455CTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$480	$480	+$0	50% 563-572 (1135)
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$376.75	$357.15	-$19.6	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49¢	$195.02	$226.86	+$31.84
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 60¢	$181.73	$130.29	-$51.44
KA Kaczka	Spursavg 61¢	$270.19	$199.2	-$70.99	12% 29-217 (246)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 39¢	$93.09	$113.16	+$20.07	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 44.6¢	$88.75	$109.53	+$20.78	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
VE VenusianCTR	Jazzavg 35¢	$78.89	$108.19	+$29.3	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$96	$103	+$7	50% 714-704 (1418)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Jazzavg 38¢	$33.44	$42.24	+$8.8	45% 1041-1259 (2300)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$36.47	$36.02	+$4.19	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$26.66	$32	+$5.33	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 65¢	$178.65	$25.25	-$5.4	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 67.7¢	$34.49	$23.55	-$7.02	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 34¢	$11.23	$15.85	+$4.62	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jazzavg 35¢	$7.14	$9.79	+$2.65	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
US User7429CTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$7.65	$8.59	+$0.94	44% 447-580 (1027)

saintaphextwin

Spurs

Invested

$3,399.65

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

15-190 (205)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,790.95

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$219.3

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Spurs

Invested

$1,051.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$20.8

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

dips.CTR

Jazz

Invested

$726.67

Value

$815.65

PnL

+$88.98

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

6512395314597884CTR

Jazz

Invested

$671.12

Value

$677.75

PnL

+$6.63

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Jazz

Invested

$656.46

Value

$553.38

PnL

+$28.1

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$525

Value

$511.9

PnL

-$5.1

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Invested

$480

Value

$480

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$376.75

Value

$357.15

PnL

-$19.6

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Jazz$195.0249¢+$31.84

Spurs$181.7360¢-$51.44

Kaczka

Spurs

Invested

$270.19

Value

$199.2

PnL

-$70.99

Record

12%

29-217 (246)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$93.09

Value

$113.16

PnL

+$20.07

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$88.75

Value

$109.53

PnL

+$20.78

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

VenusianCTR

Jazz

Invested

$78.89

Value

$108.19

PnL

+$29.3

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$96

Value

$103

PnL

+$7

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

lryyyCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$33.44

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$8.8

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$36.47

Value

$36.02

PnL

+$4.19

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$26.66

Value

$32

PnL

+$5.33

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$178.65

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$5.4

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$34.49

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$7.02

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11.23

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$4.62

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.14

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$2.65

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

User7429CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.65

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$0.94

Record

44%

447-580 (1027)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 20 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 86% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.