Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 231.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$100.06

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 95¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,590

Combined PnL+$132.09

Over4 traders

Total Value$23.15

Total Shares271

Combined PnL-$32.03

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 84¢	$590.95	$618.91	+$27.96	53% 218-191 (409)
RN1	Underavg 75.6¢	$418.27	$478.02	+$59.74	51% 289-274 (563)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 67¢	$276.42	$275.41	+$6.41	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$142.04	$188.68	+$54.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 17¢	$134.38	$86.73	-$47.65
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 88¢	$188.7	$186.32	-$2.45	42% 132-179 (311)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 59¢	$87.78	$131.67	+$43.89	48% 77-85 (162)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 74¢	$14.06	$17.01	+$2.95	57% 104-80 (184)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$35.08	$12.08	-$23	48% 436-463 (899)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$9.84	$5.74	-$4.1	59% 1209-854 (2063)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$8.24	$4.81	-$3.43	44% 125-158 (283)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.03	$0.53	-$1.5	26% 127-364 (491)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$590.95

Value

$618.91

PnL

+$27.96

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

RN1

Under

Invested

$418.27

Value

$478.02

PnL

+$59.74

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$276.42

Value

$275.41

PnL

+$6.41

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Under$142.0467¢+$54.06

Over$134.3817¢-$47.65

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$188.7

Value

$186.32

PnL

-$2.45

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$87.78

Value

$131.67

PnL

+$43.89

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$14.06

Value

$17.01

PnL

+$2.95

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.08

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$23

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.84

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$4.1

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.24

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$3.43

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.03

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.5

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.