Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 219.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 76¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$117.93

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 75.5¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$916.09

Total Shares1,673

Combined PnL+$47.18

Over3 traders

Total Value$327.75

Total Shares949

Combined PnL-$165.11

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$234.75	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$892.17	$1.5K	+$606.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$838.93	$467.38	-$371.55
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$145.72	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$305.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.7¢	$805.76	$446.85	-$451.23
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$970.45	$768.02	-$198.22	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.7¢	$286.67	$484.34	+$198.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.8¢	$680.88	$283.67	-$397.21
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 55.3¢	$811.39	$763.39	-$11.3	57% 104-80 (184)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$693.77	$656.52	-$19.09	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$365.52	$378.23	+$12.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.3¢	$328.24	$278.3	-$31.8
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$400	$256	-$144	19% 30-131 (161)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$312.81	$201.92	-$46.09	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.6¢	$143.51	$143.33	-$0.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$80.38	$58.59	-$45.69
LI Limousin	Underavg 46¢	$88.07	$144.55	+$56.48	26% 127-364 (491)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$78.97	$88.27	+$11.26	28% 122-309 (431)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$55.44	$59.14	+$3.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$23.52	$29.13	+$7.56
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$84.95	$57.52	-$5.7	49% 194-203 (397)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$36.4	$36.4	+$0.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.4¢	$24.83	$21.12	-$6.45
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$55.15	$44.87	-$13.55	59% 1209-854 (2063)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$32.49	$26.88	-$7.56	22% 85-296 (381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 46¢	$7.72	$5.55	+$0.93	56% 139-108 (247)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.53	$2.6	+$1.07	48% 77-85 (162)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,731.1

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$234.75

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Under$892.1745¢+$606.3

Over$838.9344¢-$371.55

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,361.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$145.72

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Under$1,193.8154.1¢+$305.51

Over$805.7657.7¢-$451.23

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$970.45

Value

$768.02

PnL

-$198.22

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Under$286.6744.7¢+$198.99

Over$680.8858.8¢-$397.21

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$811.39

Value

$763.39

PnL

-$11.3

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$693.77

Value

$656.52

PnL

-$19.09

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Over$365.5252.2¢+$12.71

Under$328.2454.3¢-$31.8

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$256

PnL

-$144

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$312.81

Value

$201.92

PnL

-$46.09

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Under$143.5158.6¢-$0.4

Over$80.3856.9¢-$45.69

Limousin

Under

Invested

$88.07

Value

$144.55

PnL

+$56.48

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$78.97

Value

$88.27

PnL

+$11.26

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Both legs:

Invested

$84.95

Value

$57.52

PnL

-$5.7

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

Both legs:

Under$36.452¢+$0.75

Over$24.8356.4¢-$6.45

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.15

Value

$44.87

PnL

-$13.55

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.49

Value

$26.88

PnL

-$7.56

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.72

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$1.53

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$1.07

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.