Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 217.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 42¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 10

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 42¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares10,944

Combined PnL+$694.35

Under10 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,967

Combined PnL+$472.53

Over — 23%Under — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 48¢	$5.7K	$6.6K	+$876.5	28% 122-309 (431)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$286.76	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$706.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.5¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$419.93
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 44¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$206.16	59% 1209-854 (2063)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$324.26	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$46.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.2¢	$873.64	$628.6	-$370.37
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$180.98	51% 507-483 (990)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$786.91	$870.69	+$83.77	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.1¢	$545.3	$683.57	+$138.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$241.61	$187.12	-$54.5
SU suitcase6628	Underavg 58¢	$539.4	$548.7	+$9.3	62% 79-49 (128)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 59.4¢	$593.65	$409.79	-$183.86	57% 104-80 (184)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 46¢	$258.98	$270.24	+$11.26	19% 40-176 (216)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 51.8¢	$238.49	$269.32	+$30.84	48% 436-463 (899)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 47.2¢	$135.83	$119.82	+$15.88	49% 194-203 (397)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 47¢	$55.82	$64.28	+$8.47	46% 178-209 (387)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 46¢	$40.48	$42.24	+$1.76	55% 78-63 (141)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$22.91	$26.32	+$1.71	34% 111-220 (331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 40.5¢	$15.32	$9.25	+$6.14	56% 139-108 (247)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3.25	$5	+$1.75	27% 128-352 (480)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,733.9

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$876.5

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,766.54

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$286.76

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Under$2,073.0644¢+$706.69

Over$1,693.4854.5¢-$419.93

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$2,267.76

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$206.16

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,358.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$324.26

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Under$1,05252.2¢+$46.11

Over$873.6463.2¢-$370.37

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,504.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$180.98

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$786.91

Value

$870.69

PnL

+$83.77

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Under$545.347.1¢+$138.27

Over$241.6152.9¢-$54.5

suitcase6628

Under

Invested

$539.4

Value

$548.7

PnL

+$9.3

Record

62%

79-49 (128)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$593.65

Value

$409.79

PnL

-$183.86

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$258.98

Value

$270.24

PnL

+$11.26

Record

19%

40-176 (216)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$238.49

Value

$269.32

PnL

+$30.84

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$135.83

Value

$119.82

PnL

+$15.88

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$55.82

Value

$64.28

PnL

+$8.47

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$40.48

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$1.76

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.91

Value

$26.32

PnL

+$1.71

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.32

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$6.14

Record

56%

139-108 (247)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

PnL

+$1.75

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.